Climate change and land cover effects on water yield in a subtropical watershed spanning the yungas-chaco transition of Argentina.

The demand for mountain water resources is increasing, and their availability is threatened by climate change, emphasizing the urgency for effective protection and management. The upper Sali-Dulce watershed holds vital significance as it contributes the majority of the Sali-Dulce water resources, supporting a densely populated dry region in Northwestern Argentina, covering an area of 24,217 km2. However, the potential impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water yield in this watershed remains uncertain. This study employs the InVEST Annual Water Yield model to analyze the average water yield in the watershed and evaluate its potential changes under future scenarios of climate and land use/land cover change. InVEST was calibrated using data from multiple river gauges located across the watershed, indicating satisfactory performance (R2 = 0.751, p-value = 0.0054). Precipitation and evapotranspiration were the most important variables explaining water yield in the area, followed by land use. Water yield showed a notable concentration in the montane area with 40% of the watershed accounting for 80% of the water yield, underscoring the importance of conserving natural land cover in this critical zone. Climate change scenarios project an increase in water yield ranging from 21 to 75%, while the effects of land cover change scenarios on water yield vary, with reforestation scenarios leading to reductions of up to 15% and expansions in non-irrigated agriculture resulting in increases of up to 40%. Additionally, water yield distribution may become more concentrated or dispersed, largely dependent on the type of land cover. The combined scenarios highlight the pivotal role of land cover in adapting to climate change. Our findings provide valuable insights for designing future studies and developing policies aimed at implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change within the Salí-Dulce watershed.

Rise of toxic cyanobacterial blooms is promoted by agricultural intensification in the basin of a large subtropical river of South America.

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms are globally increasing with negative effects on aquatic ecosystems, water use and human health. Blooms' main driving forces are eutrophication, dam construction, urban waste, replacement of natural vegetation with croplands and climate change and variability. The relative effects of each driver have not still been properly addressed, particularly in large river basins. Here, we performed a historical analysis of cyanobacterial abundance in a large and important ecosystem of South America (Uruguay river, ca 1900 km long, 365,000 km2 basin). We evaluated the interannual relationships between cyanobacterial abundance and land use change, river flow, urban sewage, temperature and precipitation from 1963 to the present. Our results indicated an exponential increase in cyanobacterial abundance during the last two decades, congruent with an increase in phosphorus concentration. A sharp shift in the cyanobacterial abundance rate of increase after the year 2000 was identified, resulting in abundance levels above public health alert since 2010. Path analyses showed a strong positive correlation between cyanobacteria and cropland area at the entire catchment level, while precipitation, temperature and water flow effects were negligible. Present results help to identify high nutrient input agricultural practices and nutrient enrichment as the main factors driving toxic bloom formation. These practices are already exerting severe effects on both aquatic ecosystems and human health and projections suggest these trends will be intensified in the future. To avoid further water degradation and health risk for future generations, a large-scale (transboundary) change in agricultural management towards agroecological practices will be required.

Las floraciones de cianobacterias tóxicas vienen aumentando drásticamente a nivel mundial con efectos negativos en los ecosistemas acuáticos, los usos del agua y la salud humana. Los principales mecanismos promotores de las floraciones son la eutrofización, la construcción de represas, la contaminación con residuos urbanos, la pérdida de vegetación natural y el cambio y la variabilidad climáticos. Los efectos relativos de cada determinante aún no se han abordado adecuadamente, particularmente en las grandes cuencas fluviales de América del Sur. En este trabajo, realizamos un análisis histórico de la abundancia de cianobacterias en un gran e importante ecosistema de América del Sur (el Río Uruguay, c.a. 1.900 km de largo, cuenca de 365.000 km2). Evaluamos las relaciones entre la abundancia de cianobacterias y el cambio en los usos del suelo, el caudal de los ríos, la contaminación urbana, la temperatura y la precipitación desde 1963 hasta el presente. Nuestros resultados evidencian un aumento exponencial en la abundancia de cianobacterias durante las últimas dos décadas, de forma congruente con el aumento en la concentración de fósforo en agua. Fue identificado además, un cambio brusco en la tasa de aumento de la abundancia de cianobacterias después del año 2000, lo que resultó en niveles de alerta por encima de riesgo para la salud pública desde 2010. Los análisis estadísticos indicaron una fuerte y positiva correlación entre las cianobacterias y el área de cultivo en la cuenca, mientras que la precipitación, la temperatura y el flujo de agua fueron insignificantes. Estos resultados contribuyen a identificar que las prácticas agrícolas con alto aporte de nutrientes y el enriquecimiento de nutrientes son los principales impulsores de la formación de floraciones tóxicas. Estas prácticas ya están teniendo graves efectos en los ecosistemas acuáticos y la salud humana y las proyecciones sugieren que se intensificarán en el futuro. Para evitar una mayor degradación de la calidad del agua y el incremento de los riesgos para la salud de las generaciones futuras, se requerirá un cambio a gran escala (transfronterizo) en la gestión agrícola hacia prácticas agroecológicas.

Deforestation impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in the Semiarid Chaco Region, Argentina.

Land use change affects soil organic carbon (SOC) and generates CO2 emissions. Moreover, SOC depletion entails degradation of soil functions that support ecosystem services. Large areas covered by dry forests have been cleared in the Semiarid Chaco Region of Argentina for cropping expansion. However, deforestation impacts on the SOC stock and its distribution in the soil profile have been scarcely reported. We assessed these impacts based on the analysis of field data along a time-since-deforestation-for-cropping chronosequence, and remote sensing indices. Soil organic C was determined up to 100cm depth and physically fractionated into mineral associated organic carbon (MAOC) and particulate organic C (POC). Models describing vertical distribution of SOC were fitted. Total SOC, POC and MAOC stocks decreased markedly with increasing cropping age. Particulate organic C was the most sensitive fraction to cultivation. After 10yr of cropping SOC loss was around 30%, with greater POC loss (near 60%) and smaller MAOC loss (near 15%), at 0-30cm depth. Similar relative SOC losses were observed in deeper soil layers (30-60 and 60-100cm). Deforestation and subsequent cropping also modified SOC vertical distribution. Soil organic C loss was negatively associated with the proportion of maize in the rotation and total crop biomass inputs, but positively associated with the proportion of soybean in the rotation. Without effective land use polices, deforestation and agricultural expansion can lead to rapid soil degradation and reductions in the provision of important ecosystem services.